US Dollar Tests Trend-Line Support After Mid-Terms; FOMC Ahead



US Dollar Talking Points:

The economic calendar over the following two days brings a few price choices: At 2PM ET tomorrow, the final FOMC assembly that’s not anticipated to be a ‘live meeting’ on the Fed. December is a quarterly price determination that may convey an up to date dot plot to associate with new projections and an accompanying press convention. And then beginning subsequent yr – any FOMC price determination may very well be a ‘live meeting’ and can convey an press convention with Fed Chair, Jerome Powell.

– The Dollar has dropped right down to a confluent space on the chart following yesterday’s mid-term elections within the US. Democrats gained a majority within the House whereas the GOP elevated their majority within the Senate. Focus now shifts in direction of the 2020 Presidential Election, and markets seem optimistic round yesterday’s consequence on the early stage of the matter as fairness futures have moved-higher in a single day and seem poised to achieve on the open.

– DailyFX Forecasts on quite a lot of currencies such because the US Dollar or the Euro can be found from the DailyFX Trading Guides page. If you’re seeking to enhance your buying and selling strategy, take a look at Traits of Successful Traders. And in the event you’re searching for an introductory primer to the Forex market, take a look at our New to FX Guide.

Do you need to see how retail merchants are presently buying and selling the US Dollar? Check out our IG Client Sentiment Indicator.

US Dollar Drops to Trend-Line Support Following US Mid-Terms

The outcomes of 2018 mid-terms are still being tallied in a few races however for many intents and functions, the outcomes are in. Democrats took the home whereas the GOP elevated their Senate majority, and focus now shifts in direction of the 2020 Presidential Election in what’s going to virtually certainly be billed as one other ‘most important election of our lifetimes’. Markets have put in some fascinating strikes in response, as the danger commerce caught one other shot-in-the-arm and world fairness markets are in various types of bounce; and the US Dollar caught a stern run of promoting to drop right down to two-and-a-half week lows as threat urge for food confirmed extra prominently via the FX area.

At this level, the Dollar seems to be making an attempt to carry help on a trend-line projection that may be discovered by connecting the September and October swing lows within the forex. This present help can also be confluent with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the bullish breakout from October.

US Dollar Two-Hour Price Chart: Trend-Line, Fibonacci Support Hold Lows Ahead of FOMC

us dollar usd two hour price chart

Chart ready by James Stanley

As I’ve been discussing in webinars over the previous month, themes of USD-strength and weakness have appeared to be unevenly distributed amongst main forex pairs. While EUR/USD retains some bearish construction on the four-hour chart, pairs like AUD/USD and NZD/USD are trading at fresh monthly highs; and this comes after every of these pairs built-in and held key help throughout the US Dollar’s prior topside run. This will help to denominate technique within the Greenback shifting ahead, and I look right into a sequence of main pairs beneath.

EUR/USD Tests Resistance – Italian Budget Due Next Week

One of the bigger objects of threat aversion over the previous couple of months is the continuing situation between Italy and Brussels. The European Commission rejected Italy’s finances proposal in October. Italy is now purported to re-submit a revised finances by November 13th, and a little bit of suspense stays right here as markets nonetheless don’t know whether or not the newly-elected Italian authorities will cave to the EC’s requests.

This theme has been a supply of Euro ache for a bit of this yr already, because the forex went right into a swan-dive in April and May as the federal government was being elected, after which once more in late-September into early-October as finances issues have been coming to mild.

EUR/USD Four-Hour Price Chart: A Strong November as Prices Re-Test 1.1500 Resistance

eurusd eur/usd four hour price chart

Chart ready by James Stanley

Cable Rips Back Above 1.3000

Brexit waves proceed to push price action within the British Pound, and the bid has been energetic up to now in November commerce as GBP/USD has jumped by greater than 450 pips within the early portion of this month. Along the best way numerous key ranges have been examined after which taken out, and costs at the moment are discovering some resistance at 1.3164, which is the 50% marker of the 2016-2018 topside transfer within the pair. This additionally initiatives across the descending trend-line taken from September and October swing-highs.

Given the volatility in GBP/USD over the previous few months, it might seem that Brexit could have a bit extra pull than simply customary USD developments, as this was considerably of a hyperbolic USD transfer. As the Dollar was actually sturdy via October, GBP/USD was extraordinarily weak, as threat round Brexit added-on to these Dollar beneficial properties and this pushed GBP/USD down in direction of yearly lows. But as USD-weakness has confirmed up over the previous week, optimism around Brexit has added on to that theme and the pair has posed a stern topside move again above the important thing 1.3000 space.

This might add an merchandise of threat to USD-strategies traded via GBP/USD, as we possible haven’t seen the top of volatility across the British Pound as Brexit negotiations will in all probability proceed to push costs in both course.

GBP/USD Daily Price Chart: An Even Stronger November as GBP/USD Jumps Above 1.3000

US Dollar Tests Trend-Line Support After Mid-Terms; FOMC Ahead

Chart ready by James Stanley

AUD/USD Breaks Trend-Line Resistance, Runs to Fresh Monthly Highs

During the US Dollar’s topside run final month, I began to look at the longer-term support build in AUD/USD. While the pair had spent most of 2018 in some type of down-trend, adhering to a bearish trend-line for a lot of the interval, October introduced respect of lows above the .7000 stage and, whilst USD strength was operating vividly elsewhere, it appeared to dry up in opposition to the Australian Dollar.

Coming into November, I began to look at topside plays in the pair, and as USD-weakness has come again, AUD/USD has put in a reasonably bullish previous week of worth motion. This has introduced alongside a break of the 2018 bearish trend-line, one other re-load of higher-low help at prior resistance, adopted by contemporary month-to-month highs within the pair. This can stay enticing for methods designed round additional USD-weakness; and in AUD/USD, that might open the door for higher-low help across the .7250 space of prior resistance.

AUD/USD Eight-Hour Price Chart: Bulls Take Control, Higher-Low Support Potential Around Prior Resistance

audusd aud/usd eight hour price chart

Chart ready by James Stanley

NZD/USD Jumps to Three-Month-Highs

Similar to AUD/USD above, NZD/USD had a relatively strong October considering the strength that was seen in the US Dollar. While the Greenback was leaping as much as contemporary yearly-highs, NZD/USD retained its personal bullish construction and respect of prior help. In late-October, as USD was speeding as much as contemporary highs, NZD/USD held higher-low help across the .6500 deal with.

And as that USD theme softened, NZD/USD lifted off of support, breaking above a symmetrical wedge pattern in the process. As USD-weakness has grown a bit extra outstanding, that topside transfer in NZD/USD has continued to drive-higher, now bringing on contemporary three-month-highs within the pair.

At this stage, the pair is likely to be just a little too scorching to attempt to purchase, notably on condition that costs stay perched close to three-month-highs. But – there may be an space of prior resistance that retains curiosity for higher-low help, and that takes place across the .6700 deal with that was broken-through with out a lot as a pause yesterday.

Also of word – there may be an RBNZ price determination lurking on the calendar for later right this moment, forward of the November price determination from the Federal Reserve, set to happen tomorrow.

NZD/USD Eight-Hour Price Chart

nzdusd nzd/usd eight hour price chart

Chart ready by James Stanley

To learn extra:

Are you searching for longer-term evaluation on the U.S. Dollar? Our DailyFX Forecasts for Q4 have a bit for every main forex, and we additionally provide a plethora of sources on USD-pairs akin to EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD. Traders may also keep up with near-term positioning by way of our IG Client Sentiment Indicator.

Forex Trading Resources

DailyFX gives a plethora of instruments, indicators and sources to assist merchants. For these searching for buying and selling concepts, our IG Client Sentiment exhibits the positioning of retail merchants with precise reside trades and positions. Our trading guides convey our DailyFX Quarterly Forecasts and our Top Trading Opportunities; and our real-time news feed has intra-day interactions from the DailyFX crew. And in the event you’re searching for real-time evaluation, our DailyFX Webinars provide quite a few periods every week in which you’ll be able to see how and why we’re what we’re .

If you’re searching for instructional info, our New to FX guide is there to assist new(er) merchants whereas our Traits of Successful Traders research is constructed to assist sharpen the talent set by specializing in threat and commerce administration.

— Written by James Stanley, Strategist for

Contact and observe James on Twitter: @JStanleyFX


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