US Dollar Talking Points:
– The US Dollar is bouncing from help this morning after yesterday’s sizeable pullback. Yesterday noticed 50% of the prior bullish breakout erased, with price actionhelp coming into the foreign money round a key space on the chart at 96.00. This morning’s Non-Farm Payrolls report produced a beat on the headline quantity with a +250okay print v/s a +190okay expectation. The unemployment charge remained at 50-year lows of 3.7%, and Average Hourly Earnings got here in scorching at an annualized 3.1%.
– Next week brings a sequence of high-risk occasions, together with US mid-term elections set for Tuesday. The following day brings FOMC, and whereas expectations for any precise modifications on the financial institution are low, the assertion shall be parsed via for clues of response to the previous month of weak spot throughout US equities. This morning’s jobs report could make that troublesome, nonetheless, as each job positive factors and wage development have remained sturdy.
– DailyFX Forecasts on a wide range of currencies such as the US Dollar or the Euro can be found from the DailyFX Trading Guides page. If you’re seeking to enhance your buying and selling method, try Traits of Successful Traders. And if you happen to’re in search of an introductory primer to the Forex market, try our New to FX Guide.
Do you wish to see how retail merchants are presently buying and selling the US Dollar? Check out our IG Client Sentiment Indicator.
US Dollar Bounces From Support as NFP Beats Expectations
This morning’s Non-Farm Payrolls report came-in well-above expectations, printing at +250okay for the month of October versus an expectation for +190okay. The unemployment charge printed on the expectation and 50-year low of 3.7%, and Average Hourly Earnings printed at an annualized 3.1%, only a hair beneath the expectation for 3.2%.
The preliminary response within the US Dollar has been a continued bounce from the secondary support checked out in yesterday’s webinar, and that started to indicate about an hour-and-a-half forward of the discharge. Yesterday’s pullback in DXY continued all the way in which right down to the second zone listed in yesterday’s article, and that is available in across the 96.00 stage as there are a sequence of Fibonacci retracements in shut proximity of one another. The massive query as we transfer in the direction of this week’s shut is whether or not patrons can maintain help at this stage, or whether or not we see a deeper check after the earlier-week bullish breakout has started to reverse.
US Dollar Two-Hour Price Chart: Bounce From Support Around This Morning’s NFP
Mid-Term Elections, FOMC Highlight Next Week’s Calendar
The Dollar will stay in focus within the coming week as a few key drivers are on the calendar. Tuesday brings mid-term elections, and this might carry a big bearing on the danger commerce. And the next day brings the Federal Reserve for his or her November charge choice, and the assertion will seemingly be finely examined to see whether or not the Fed poses any response to the ache seen in shares within the month of October.
US Mid-Terms, FOMC Highlight Next Week’s Calendar
Can US Dollar Bulls Continue to Drive?
For subsequent week the massive query across the Dollar is whether or not patrons can proceed to push costs greater. This week noticed fresh one year highs print in the currency as the bullish breakout from October continued into the new month. But yesterday noticed a really seen reversal that erased half of the prior two-week transfer. That help got here in at a key space and to this point, it’s held. The key for this theme shall be that help holding up via Monday as we get into subsequent week’s calendar.
US Dollar Daily Price Chart: Can Dollar Bulls Hold the Line?
EUR/USD Softens at Resistance As USD Bounces From Support
The resistance zone that I’ve been following in EUR/USD got here into play this morning forward of NFP. The zone runs from the 50% marker of the 2017-2018 bullish transfer in EUR/USD at 1.1448 and runs up to the psychological level of 1.1500.
In the primary half of October, this zone helped to carry the lows within the pair via a number of failed makes an attempt from bears to drive-lower. It lastly gave approach in the midst of the month, resulting in this week’s failed breakout on the yearly low of 1.1300. This can maintain the door open for bearish methods within the pair, and this may stay as one of many extra engaging venues to search for continued US Dollar strength.
On the information entrance, subsequent week is anticipated to carry some developments across the ongoing saga between Brussels and Rome. Italy is meant to have their revised finances to the European Commission by the next Tuesday (November 13th), and this may maintain stress on the one foreign money.
EUR/USD Four-Hour Price Chart: Soften From Key Resistance Around USD Support Bounce
AUD/USD Breakout Pulls Back with USD Support Bounce
On the short-side of the Dollar, I’ve been following AUD/USD this week. While USD-strength was displaying fairly visibly in each EUR/USD and GBP/USD forward of this week’s open, AUD/USD retained a relative amount of support above the .7000 big figure. As USD reversed yesterday, AUD/USD put in a pointy topside transfer, breaking above a bearish trend-line as effectively as a big space of prior help across the .7200 deal with.
Given the pair’s response this week to that theme of USD-weakness, this setup might stay engaging as we transfer into subsequent week for short-side methods within the Dollar, in search of a bigger pullback within the US foreign money after AUD/USD posed its first day by day shut above the bearish trend-line that’s held the highs within the pair for the previous 9 months.
AUD/USD Four-Hour Price Chart
Chart ready by James Stanley
To learn extra:
Are you in search of longer-term evaluation on the U.S. Dollar? Our DailyFX Forecasts for Q4 have a piece for every main foreign money, and we additionally supply a plethora of sources on USD-pairs such as EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD. Traders also can keep up with near-term positioning by way of our IG Client Sentiment Indicator.
Forex Trading Resources
DailyFX presents a plethora of instruments, indicators and sources to assist merchants. For these in search of buying and selling concepts, our IG Client Sentiment reveals the positioning of retail merchants with precise dwell trades and positions. Our trading guides carry our DailyFX Quarterly Forecasts and our Top Trading Opportunities; and our real-time news feed has intra-day interactions from the DailyFX workforce. And if you happen to’re in search of real-time evaluation, our DailyFX Webinars supply quite a few periods every week in which you’ll see how and why we’re what we’re .
If you’re in search of academic data, our New to FX guide is there to assist new(er) merchants whereas our Traits of Successful Traders research is constructed to assist sharpen the talent set by specializing in threat and commerce administration.
— Written by James Stanley, Strategist for DailyFX.com
Contact and observe James on Twitter: @JStanleyFX